HOT Lanes Are Successful

When was the last time a light rail project had nearly 3 times projected ridership?


http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_5639244,00.html

Planners initially figured 500 solo drivers would pay tolls during the average weekday rush hour and that the operation would bring in $80,000 a month after the first few months.

But since January, morning rush hour has seen a daily average of between 1,425 and 1,861 solo drivers per month. Averages in the evening are similar. The total number of paying customers has ranged from roughly 72,000 to 90,000 a month.

The take for the Colorado Department of Transportation: between $144,216 and $181,917 in monthly toll revenue.

Colorado Earmarks

Want to see how Colorado compares to other states when it comes to federal earmarks? If so, take a look here.

Enforced Harmony

Why is it that these association's are allowed to do this? An upside down flag is construed as being not ok? What if she flew a Tibet flag and her neighbor was a Chinese national and was offended? Vice verse? How well written is the association's "patriotic and political expression policy"? It would be one thing if this was written up as how things can look. That is, flags must be properly flown, the mailbox should be within 2 feet of the driveway and the same color as the house etc. But this is a policy that isn't about appearances but going into the much more subjective area of expression. Why is a homeowners association allowed to try to force what it calls "harmony in community"? Why is a homeowners association doing this?

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_6352763

The Cambridge Park Homeowners Association, which represents owners of 107 patio homes, doesn't agree with Hammer's perspective.

On Wednesday night, the association's board met to hear her response to its notice of noncompliance. The board took no action, and board members refused to comment.

The board was minus one member: Hammer's husband, Doug, a board member who did not participate in the meeting but supports her.

The association board notified Beth Hammer in an April 24 letter that the flag display is against federal flag code and is in violation of the association's "patriotic and political expression policy."

The letter gave her a week to right the flag or face fines that appear to range from $25 to $500.

"Living in a community association offers many advantages to the homeowner, but at the same time, imposes some restrictions," said the letter signed by association manager Melissa Keithly.

"These restrictions are not meant as an inconvenience or an invasion of your freedom, but rather as a means of maintaining harmony in your community," the letter continued.

Thomas Jefferson

"Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..."

Bike Path To Nowhere?

Andrew Roth is too quick to criticize money spent on a new non-automobile right-of-way on a bridge project in Virginia. It's easy to dub it a bridge to nowhere type project based on current ridership. But it fails to ask some key questions. How much traffic is there now DESPITE the design of things. As someone who frequently bikes to work, the library, Super Target and other places I avoid routes that require me to ride on busy streets during rush hour. How does Roth know that the reason for such low ridership is not that there are a lack of users but that people avoid it because it's not safe to use. Roth also fails to asses the overall costs of the bridge. How much money is being spent for how many cars? I'm not saying this because as a rider I want special privileges. It's just that when you've been out there dealing with drivers that try running you off the road, pass you from behind only to take a right turn in front of you and you crash into them and other incidents, you become weary of putting your butt on the line if you don't have to. And you become aware that 1/2 the battle of getting people out walking, jogging and riding is providing them with safe routes.

Private Operators Reduce Costs By Over 10%

If having private companies do this saves this much money, why don't we do it more often?

FasTracks is now priced at nearly $6.2 billion, largely because of the rising cost of construction materials and additions to the project. RTD anticipates collecting $5.5 billion from the FasTracks sales tax, grants, loans and other sources. Managers say the best way to reduce the $670 million gap is to seek out private firms to take over some or all of the work on at least four of the rail corridors.

Fastraks = Pollution Reduction

With 3/4th of Fastracks riders being existing transit riders (that is, moving them from buses onto trains), how is this sort of pollution reduction claim possible?

http://www.denvergov.org/CouncilDistrict12/FasTracksAddressesCongestionAirQuality/tabid/383055/Default.aspx

FasTracks will make it easy for people to come into Denver for work and fun while decreasing pollution. It is estimated that FasTracks would reduce carbon dioxide pollution every year by 1.5 million pounds. We have proven in Denver that if light rail is built, it will be used. Of the three completed rail projects, all have ridership far greater than initial projections.

And to boot, what were those initial projections? My experience in Minneapolis with the Hiawatha line was that in the late 1990s when there was the initial hard push to get that LRT line built, they were using higher projection numbers than they were using in as the funding was finalized. And later when they met those first "initial" projections, they claimed it was doing better than projected when in reality they were at the level that they had first said they would be.

Wild Oats and Whole Foods Thwarted

This is why baseball needs it's anti-trust status. Things get so narrowly defined that it's insane. I wonder if Wal-Mart's behind some of the political pressure to nit pick this deal to deal. Or maybe it's the citizens of Boulder wanting to keep their mega-posh-food store "local"?

http://www.reason.com/blog/show/120623.html

The Federal Trade Commission wants to block the merger of Wild Oats Markets with Whole Foods, predicting that it would lead to "higher prices, reduced quality and fewer choices for consumers." Never mind that three-quarters of natural and organic products are sold by conventional supermarkets and other mass-market outlets. For purposes of assessing the merger, the FTC has decided to ignore all those competitors, focusing just on stores that not only sell natural and organic foods but do so in an environment similar to what shoppers experience at Wild Oats and Whole Foods:

"Premium natural and organic supermarkets seek a different customer than do traditional grocery stores," the F.T.C. said. "Whole Foods' and Wild Oats' customers are buying something more than just the food product—they are seeking a shopping 'experience,' where environment can matter as much as price."

Market definitions this narrow, designed to exclude just about every company except those involved in the deal, make it possible to reject any merger as anticompetitive.

Colorado Oil Shale

But what if we used nuclear, solar and wind to power the process? What then would be the environmental costs?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&refer=us&sid=aoZ7q9LhDrVs

Colorado and Utah have as much oil as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Kuwait, Libya, Angola, Algeria, Indonesia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates combined.

That's not science fiction. Trapped in limestone up to 200 feet (61 meters) thick in the two Rocky Mountain states is enough so-called shale oil to rival OPEC and supply the U.S. for a century.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the two biggest U.S. energy companies, and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are spending $100 million a year testing new methods to separate the oil from the stone for as little as $30 a barrel. A growing number of industry executives and analysts say new technology and persistently high prices make the idea feasible.

More On The New Cost of Fastracks

More news has come on on how RTD plans to deal with it's growing cost of building Fastracks. The costs have grown from the original $4.7 billion presented to voters when they passed bonding to $6.5 billion. The approach appears to break down as follows :

a) Project Cuts - They're planning on keeping all corridors and the length on those as planned. However, they're looking to make all sorts of cuts to how those lines are built. They're looking at making stations smaller so they can only handle 3-car trains. They're taking out previously planned pedestrian bridges. Drainage plans will only be capable of handling 5 year storms. They're making service cut backs such as running trains every 15 minutes in places they had originally proposed running them every 5 minutes.

b) More Money - RTD is looking to now ask the Federal government for $1.42 billion in funding (@50% more than originally planned). Privatization is on the cards with private investors able to operate the heavy rail commuter lines. They're also looking at issuing more bonds.

What does this mean? Some of the cutbacks are likely to result in higher maintenance costs. Service will also be less convenient whether it will be small issues such pedestrian access reduced or it just taking a lot more time to commute with trains running less frequently. And if ridership grows? Money will have to be put into rebuilding stations to handle longer trains.

Issuing new bonds will mean it will take longer to retire the bonds. Last year RTD issued $600 million in bonds instead of $200 million to address lower than fore casted sales tax revenues. They're looking to add even more to those bonding issues. With the large number of transit projects asking the federal government for money, it's not clear how much of the larger federal contribution Fastracks will be able to obtain.

How Much Of FasTracks Will We Get?

As the FasTracks program moves forward, it'll be interesting to see how much of it lives up to the original $4.7 billion system the voters actually approved. The main problem is that the project is already $2 billion over budget. To compound the issue collection of the sales tax has been slower originally claimed. At the lower pace, it will come up a $1 billion short. This means RTD needs to find new funding sources for the project and ways to save money.

The West Corridor is the Fastracks line that will open. It's planned on being completed early in 2013 (8 1/2 years after funding was approved). But it's running into problems. It's already $113 million over it's $511.8 million budget (20% over budget; note : RTD is telling the Feds that the projected costs are $593 million). They looked at several alternatives for this and other lines but most of them don't meet legal requirements. Other changes such as modifying the drainage system so it no longer built to handle 100 year storms (likely to happen once every 100 years but that doesn't mean you can't have them more frequently) to only capable of properly handling run-off from five year storms will save $4 million in upfront construction costs but will likely result in higher maintenance costs in the future. They're also looking at building part of the line as single track (will slow down operations and increase risks of accidents), not building some pedestrian bridges at stations and not installing security equipment.

To compound the problem, as Fastracks slowly moves forward more and more communities across the US are queuing up for Federal funding. There are literally hundreds of projects in the works right now that are planning on getting Federal money to cover half of their construction costs. So far there are less than 30 that have qualified for New Starts Funding (section 5309 funds). Currently only the West Corridor has been appropriated $4.9 million of the $35 million recommended in News Starts Funding. How much will the West Corridor get in the end for it's FFGA (Federal Funding Grant Agreement)? If it's anything less than the $290.6 million RTD is asking for, will it necessitate even more cuts on the West Corridor or even other lines? It's not clear with one source saying that the original plan was for the Federal government to cover only $815 million of the $4.7 billion costs. This would mean that they're planning on using over 1/3 of their federal funding for just one line. It may also mean that they're planning on more federal funding down the road than they originally said they would seek. Either way with some projections showing that planned requests from transit projects across the country being 5 times more than what Federal funding is expected to be available, it's going to be tough to get every penny they're planning on getting.

So how is RTD going to come up with the money? The referendum that was passed did promise "increased bus service". It's unlikely they could make cuts in other areas to such as bus service without losing a law suit. But the referendum didn't promise light rail or specific improvements on the proposed corridors. Some of that was because they were planning heavy rail (aka commuter rail) on some corridors such as the line from Denver to Boulder to Longmont and the DIA line. But with it being common for these sort of projects to face cost overruns, could they also have done it so they could cut corners later? If they build the Gold Line as a street car line and offer less frequent service as they're proposing to do, there isn't much the voters can likely do. Even though it will mean the service will be less likely to get drivers out of cars and reduce congestion. As Jon Caldara, a form RTD board chairman recently asked, isn't it time for RTD to say they were wrong?

Will The DMC Convention Hurt?

The Sports Economist points out some recent questioning of the benefits and costs of hosting the Democratic National Convention. They point out that the 2005 NBA All-Star game didn't have the impact it was touted to bring with many people who would normally come downtown staying away while it was occuring.

Worse, other recent political conventions have fallen fall short of their original projections such as with Boston.

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070211/BUSINESS/702110327/-1/NEWS01

City officials estimated a net gain of $163.3 million in both direct and indirect benefits as a result of the convention. But the Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University in Boston, a public policy think tank, calculated a much lower gain -- $14.8 million.

The difference stems from a disagreement over costs associated with events canceled because of the convention, such as a parade of tall sailing ships.

Taking into account all the costs many are saying the benefits for the city will be closer to $20 million. This seems much more likely than the committee's claims of $200 million. And when taking into consideration that the city is busy raising $80 million dollars to pay for this event, it hardly seems worth it.

Resonable Snow Removal

What changes can Denver and other cities and counties make to their snow removal practices that still make sense given how frequently the snow melts away?

Denver's Snow Woes

It's nice to see Hickenlooper (Can we just call him Mayor H?) pitching in and encouraging people to get out and shovel and help those who need help. But what I'd really like to see is the city get out and cite residents and businesses for not clearing their sidewalks. A bit tough when you get 2 blizzards? Sure. But during other snow falls I found several places where the sidewalks weren't cleared and despite Denver's generally mild winter, it was downright dangerous for folks. And seeing that Denver hasn't enforced it's Snow Removal Route no-parking ordinances for a decade or two (one paper said 9 years, the other said 1983), I doubt they're doing much about the sidewalks. We don't just need people who care but a city that sets a minimal level of expectations for ALL citizens.

Colorado Meth

This blog on this story of a man arrested for "suspicion of meth" simply for buying more Claritin-D than the law allowed (buying for his son who can't legally buy put him over the limit) made me wonder if anyone in Colorado's run into this problem. Do you know of anyone who's had run-ins with the authorities thanks to these laws? Do you suffer from allergies and worry that your previously legal use of Claritin-D or other over the counter drugs will get you flagged as a suspect?

IMBA Epic Trails

As we know, Colorado is a wonderful place for mountain biking. Only California has more IMBA epic rides than Colorado. Colorado's Epic Rides are as follows :

Buffalo Creek Trails, Pine, Colorado
The Edge Loop, Fruita, Colorado
Telegraph Trails, Durango, Colorado

Do you know of any trails in Colorado that should be nominated?

Colorado Oil And Gas

Colorado Confidential is reporting that "Nearly 100 oil and gas leases that had been issued in Colorado's wilderness and roadless areas by the Bureau of Land Management have been blocked by a ruling from US District magistrate Judge Elizabeth Laporte".

Will this have a large impact on the future of energy production in Colorado.

Colorado Cooling

Here's an interesting study in light of all the recent global warming talk in Colorado lately.

http://www.playfuls.com/news_003020_Russian_Scientists_Predict_New_Ice_Age_In_50_Years.html

Researchers with the Russian Academy of Sciences warned Wednesday that the Earth could be headed for a 60-year cooldown, the news agency Interfax reported.

Scientists based at the academy's Pulkovskaya Observatory in St Petersburg, Russia, said they expected a gradual decrease in global temperatures in 2012-15, followed by a more dramatic, 60-year period of cold to come in 2055-60.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov, chief researcher at the observatory, said the predictions were based on solar cycles, and that after the 60-year glimpse of the Ice Ages warmer weather could be expected.

Averages [Non-Colorado Specific]

Averages

Averages are nice to know but sometimes I feel like a lot of people don't realize how limited they are. For example, realators seem to love using averages when talking about housing prices. Even though the median price would much better reflect what's going on in the market. I ran across this discussion of averages with an excellent example that both addresses why they're tricky and more so how a dropping average wage would have a limited meaning.


http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/boudreaux/s_481276.html

The same problem with averages arises when discussing average wage rates. The average wage rate can fall even though everyone's wages rise. Here's how. Suppose that America's average wage rate is now $18 per hour. Now suppose that many low-skilled immigrants arrive and find employment here at wages higher than they could earn in their home countries. Possessing lower-than-average skills means that the wages these immigrant workers earn will likely be lower than the U.S. average -- say $10 per hour.

America's average wage rate will be pulled down even though no individual's wages fall. Indeed, it is possible for every American's wages to rise and the average still fall.

Let's be clear: A change in an average might be evidence of changes in the fortunes of the individuals who compose the group for which the average is calculated. But it need not be so.

Statistics seem like straightforward, unambiguous facts; they're not. Care is required not only in their gathering but also in your interpretation of them.

Colorado Family Planning

Colorado Confidential is reporting that Govenor-elect Bill Ritter could restore family planning funding. Has anyone seen any recent polling on this? I'm curious if this is a more accurate reflection of what the Colorado electorate would want.